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Election 2004 - "Exit-Poll
Disinformation Hoax Backfires?" Part IV
Manipulated Exit-Poll Data for Lethal
Affect on Republican Voter Turnout - January 2005
Statistical Analysis of Disinformation Exit
Polls
by Col.
John H. Wambough, Jr. USAF (Ret.)
j-bwambough@cox.net - www.nsar.us
Election Reform: Count Votes - No More Winner
Projections by Democrat Manipulated Exit Polls
Permanent
Link: http://WrennCom.Com/CommentaryArchives/2005/20y05m02d19-01.asp.
[February
19, 2005] |
Col. John
H. Wambough, Jr
USAF (Ret.)
|
|
Statistical
Analysis of Disinformation Exit Polls - Whether the CACTECH/MIT
Voting Technology Project (and
December 5th Addendum) or analysis being done by statisticians such as Stephen F.
Freeman (who likely understates sampling errors
for Election 2004 exit polls), their analysis is mainly focused on
the backend of the exit-poll controversy (on data that emerged after polls closed). My
concerns are at the front-end with the early disinformation data (before any polls
closed) that hoodwinked the American people into believing Kerry would win the election. Why
would any exit-polling company circulate data to the broadcast Networks that Kerry was
winning in a landslide in
Pennsylvania
by 20 points,
Minnesota
by 18 points,
Wisconsin
by 9 points and
New Hampshire
by 18 points? Which National Network was this data
suppose to help in its Election Day analysis? What were trained election statisticians
suppose to do with false data?
The
National Networks use of exit polling in Elections 2000 and 2004 suggest that their primary
purpose for exit polls is to assist Democrats win elections. Election Day exit-poll analysis
appears secondary to getting a Democrat in the White House. Influencing the outcome
of National Elections via early exit-poll disinformation has become the Election Day
modus operandi of the Networks. To understand exit-polls, visit "Mystery
Pollster - Demystifying
the Science and Art of Political Polling" and "Exit-Polls:
What You Should Know" and Have
the Exit Polls Been Wrong Before? - By Mark
Blumenthal. For those concerned about voting machine accuracy, suggest "Voting
Machines and the Underestimate of the Bush Vote"
by CALTECH/MIT Voting Technology Project (and
the December 5th Addendum). Also, suggest
reading: “A
Tour of the 2004 Exit Poll: What it Says and What it Doesn’t”
By Roy Telxeira.
Comparing National
Election Pool (NEP) Exit-Poll Data and Data Indicating a Kerry Landslide
With Pre-Election Poll Averages and
Actual Voting Results:
- Table 1 –
NEP Exit-Poll Data (Disinformation), Shown on Drudge Report,
Tuesday, November 2, 2004
at -
2:03:32 EST
- Table
2 – Early Exit-Poll Data (Disinformation), Indicating a Kerry Landslide to the American
People (Uses Table 1 Data)
- Table
3 – Pre-Election Poll Averages 10/25-11/1, 2004 – Real
Clear Politics.Com
- Table
4 – Actual Voting Results – CBS
News. Com - Campaign 2004 - Nov 2nd
Election
Table
1 - NEP Exit-Poll (Disinformation Data) – Published on Drudge Report, Election Day,
2:03:32 EST
|
|
AZ
|
CO
|
LA
|
PA
|
OH
|
FL
|
MI
|
NM
|
MN
|
WI
|
IA
|
NH
|
TOTAL
POINTS
|
|
Kerry
|
Lose
45
|
Lose
48
|
Lose
42
|
Win
60
|
Win
52
|
Win
51
|
Win
51
|
Win
50
|
Win
58
|
Win
52
|
Tie
49
|
Win
57
|
W8,T1,L3
615
|
|
Bush
|
Win
55
|
Win
51
|
Win
57
|
Lose
40
|
Lose
48
|
Lose
48
|
Lose
47
|
Lose
48
|
Lose
40
|
Lose
43
|
Tie
49
|
Lose
41
|
W3,T1,L8
565
|
Table
2 - NEP Early Exit-Poll (Disinformation Data) - Indicating a Kerry Landslide to the
American People
Table
3 - Real
Clear Politics.Com Pre-Election Poll Averages (10/25-11/1,
2004)
*Actual
Voting Results were used for AZ and LA. To review poll averages and the pollster
companies used to construct those averages, click on the state abbreviation
|
|
AZ
*
|
CO
|
LA
*
|
PA
|
OH
|
FL
|
MI
|
NM
|
MN
|
WI
Note
|
IA
|
NH
|
TOTAL
POINTS
|
|
Kerry
|
Lose
44.0
|
Lose
44.8
|
Lose
42.0
|
Win
48.2
|
Lose
46.7
|
Lose
47.6
|
Win
48.7
|
Lose
46.4
|
Win
48.7
|
Lose
46.8
|
Lose
47.1
|
Win
48.5
|
W4
- L8
560
|
|
Bush
|
Win
55.0
|
Win
50.0
|
Win
57.0
|
Lose
47.3
|
Win
48.8
|
Win
48.2
|
Lose
45.2
|
Win
47.8
|
Lose
45.3
|
Win
47.7
|
Win
47.4
|
Lose
47.5
|
W8
- L4
565
|
Table
4 - Actual Voting Results –- CBS
News. Com - Campaign 2004 - Nov 2nd Election
To
review election results, click on the state abbreviation
|
|
AZ
|
CO
|
LA
|
PA
|
OH
|
FL
|
MI
|
NM
|
MN
|
WI
|
IA
|
NH
|
TOTAL
POINTS
|
|
Kerry
|
Lost
44
|
Lost
47
|
Lost
42
|
Won
51
|
Lost
49
|
Lost
47
|
Won
51
|
Lost
49
|
Won
51
|
Won
50
|
Lost
49
|
Won
50
|
W5
L7
580
|
|
Bush
|
Won
55
|
Won
52
|
Won
57
|
Lost
49
|
Won
51
|
Won
52
|
Lost
48
|
Won
50
|
Lost
48
|
Lost
49
|
Won
50
|
Lost
49
|
W7
L5
610
|
- Table
1 (above). This table shows National Election Pool (disinformation) Exit-Poll
"Raw" Data appearing on the Drudge Report at
2:03:32 EST
on
November 2, 2004
. These early exit polls are a national scandal. In the swing
states, all exit polls were biased in favor of Kerry. We must ask why? The logical answer
is that the exit-poll numbers were not derived from random samples of the voting
population. "There was a time you could go to the bank with the early exit
polls," Zogby
said.” Now we have a problem." For the NEP to plead ignorance of the political
impact that their disinformation would have on Election Day is beyond
incredulity. NEP Exit Polling was used to mislead the American people into thinking Kerry
would win the key battleground states of
Ohio
,
Florida
and other closely contested swing states and the national
election in a landslide.
o
In the two non-swing states
shown in this data (Kerry had no chance of winning
Arizona
and
Louisiana
), NEP
“early” data was virtually spot on with actual voting results - hmmm. A question for
NEP: how come "early" exit polling for non-swing states was highly accurate yet this "early"
exit polling data was off in swing states and always favoring Kerry? Dick
Morris believes:
"This
was no mere mistake. Exit polls cannot be as wrong across the board as they were on
election night. I suspect foul play."
o
NEP
"Early" exit-poll raw data was used
to validate a Kerry landslide to the American people. Given pre-election poll averages were so
far out of whack with these early exit polls, why would this highly suspect data be released
to the National
Networks and subscribers
if not for the purpose of influencing the national election in favor of Kerry? Of note, NEP
(disinformation) data (Table 1) shows Kerry's percentages (in all cases) equal to or
exceeding actual voting results.
- Table
2 (above). NEP Early Exit-Polls
(disinformation) were clearly being used to convey to the American people that Kerry would
win the election in a landslide. Percentages shown for these four states are outlandish.
This "Early" exit-poll data was so far off the mark that it should have
been an embarrassment for the pollsters to forward it to the National
Networks and its subscribers.
It is reasonable to speculate that "early" exit-poll
"raw" data was not intended for use by the National Networks or subscribers
but for the consumption of millions of Americans to chill Republican voter
turnout and influence the outcome of Election 2004 in favor of Kerry. The
Networks use of exit polls in Elections 2000 and 2004 suggest that their first priority
for Election Day exit polls was to assist Democrats win National Elections.
- Table
3 (above). The third table indicates
the projected winner (in states shown) for the week immediately preceding Election
Day 10/25-11/1. See Real
Clear Politics (RCP) Poll Averages.
Clicking on the state abbreviation allows you to review Real Clear Politics poll averages
and the pollster companies used to construct those averages. Pre-election poll
averages showed Bush as the projected winner for the battleground states of
Ohio
and
Florida
; actual voting
results confirmed this prediction; Bush won
Ohio
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